Talk » tonight, its going be in net. He wasnt wr

When was the last time a dominant running back led his team to a Super Bowl title? You might have to go all the way back to Terrell Davis and the 1998 Denver Broncos for an example, and that might not be a fair one. Davis was playing alongside of a Hall of Fame quarterback in John Elway, after all. A more modern case such as Marshawn Lynch is misleading, because his 2013 Seahawks were successful thanks mostly to their defense, particularly their pass defense.The Vikings might want to keep that in mind when weighing the $18 million salary Adrian Peterson is due next season. Peterson, who is likely to miss the rest of 2016 with a knee injury and will turn 32 next season, has probably seen his best days as a runner. Its still possible for him to have some productive seasons ahead, but thats not the question for the Vikings. The question is whether he is worth $18 million. All of Petersons pay next season is in base salary and roster bonus, so Minnesota can cut him before 2017 without incurring any cap penalty.It has long been said that the NFL is a passing league, and for good reason. Its not just that passing has become more frequent and successful; it is more decisive in terms of scoring and winning. We know this thanks to Expected Points Added (EPA) and Win Probability Added (WPA). EPA is our best measure of overall scoring productivity, measuring an offenses ability to move the ball, limit turnovers, and even suppress opponents opportunities to score. WPA does the same thing, but also considers game situation factors like score, time, and timeouts remaining.In 2015, the spread among the 32 teams was 2.3 EPA when passing, measured in terms of standard deviation. When running, the spread among the 32 teams was 0.7 EPA, less than a third of the impact of passing. In terms of WPA, the difference was only slightly less stark. The standard deviation among teams for passing was 1.1 WPA, and for running it was 0.4 WPA. In other words, a team should greatly prefer being a top passing team than a top running team by a factor of 3 to 1. Another way to look at this disparity is that being the most dominant running offense in the league would equate to being a modestly above-average passing offense.So in a world where $18 million is more in line with the salary of a second-tier quarterback, is it plausible that any running back would be worth that amount? If any running back would be worth it, it would be Peterson (or Peterson in his prime, at least). His suspension for nearly all of the 2014 season offers a conveniently large natural experiment for testing how much of an impact he made on the Vikings fortunes in recent years.Lets look at the past four full regular seasons (2012-15), and compare how the Vikings offense performed with Peterson on the field compared with off the field. On rushing plays, the Vikings performed measurably better with Peterson. Without him on the field, they averaged minus-0.01 EPA/play. But with him on the field, they averaged 0.02 EPA. Roughly speaking, that difference equates to about half a point per game. Another way to look at it is that the difference of 0.03 EPA/play would make an otherwise average offense into the 13th-best offense. Thats good, just not $18 million good.But Peterson contributed more than just rushing to the Vikings offense. Smart people in football will tell you his mere presence has drawn extra defenders near the line of scrimmage and has helped open up his teams passing. Its a plausible assertion, but how true is it?Comparing Weeks 2 through 17 in 2014 and 2015 can give us an idea of Petersons influence on opposing defenses. Peterson played in Week 1 in 14 before missing the rest of the season, and without him, the Vikings saw an average of 6.7 defenders in the box. But with Peterson in 15, they saw an average of 7.1. And in those same games, the box was considered loaded, meaning there were more potential tacklers than potential blockers, only 17 times without Peterson in 14, but 117 times with Peterson in 15. So it looks like there was an effect, but what was the bottom line in terms of passing productivity?Lets look at the Vikings passing EPA rates with and without Peterson. On all pass plays, with Peterson on the field over the past four regular seasons, Minnesota averaged 0.12 EPA/play. Without him on the field? They averaged, yes, 0.12 EPA/play. A lot of other factors can affect those numbers, such as quarterback Teddy Bridgewaters development in the past two seasons, so lets break it out by year. The difference with and without Peterson on passing plays in the last four full seasons was minus-0.07, minus-0.04, minus-0.01, and 0.08 EPA/play, respectively. So although Peterson draws in the defense, it seems that the effect of an elite running back such as Peterson on the passing game is probably overstated at best, and non-existent at worst.So how can some free agent running backs be so overpaid? A few decades ago, the NFL was truly a running league and great RBs could make a much bigger impact on the game. Theres also the illusion from the fact that running backs happen to be the guys with the ball in their hands and the stats on the back of their trading cards. We all remember the days on the sandlot or on the varsity team where the running back is always the best athlete on the field. But running back has a high replacement level in the NFL in 2016, meaning there are a number of competent players available who arent much of a liability at the position, compared to relatively scarce positions like cornerback or offensive line. Lastly, theres the age-old causation/correlation fallacy in which running backs on winning teams get to pad their yardage totals by sealing wins in the fourth quarter, making them appear to be causing their teams success.Even Peterson in his prime would not be worth close to $18 million. Although such an athlete can be fascinating to watch and can win fantasy games for fans, the modern running game just barely moves the needle when it comes to competing for championships, and Minnesota is Exhibit A.After this season, the Vikings have 19 pending free agents currently earning a total of $34 million in per-year salaries over their contracts, including several starters. That $18 million in savings could go a long way toward shoring up other, more critical positions. Even a severe reduction in salary to half or even a third of what Peterson is due would be a mistake.There is some question whether Minnesota can cut him. 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Plouffe batted .254 with 14 home runs and 52 RBIs in 477 at-bats last season, his second as a regular in the lineup.WASHINGTON -- Dont look now, but Carey Price is hard to beat when hes angry.Mad at himself, his teammates and everybody for getting pulled the previous night, Price made a statement in his return to the net as the Montreal Canadiens snapped the Washington Capitals winning streak at six with a 2-1 victory Saturday night.Price stopped 20 of the 21 shots he faced in a better effort by the 2014-2015 Vezina Trophy-winning goaltender and his entire team than they displayed Friday in a lackluster loss to the San Jose Sharks.It was important for everybody to get an opportunity to bounce back, said Price, who earned his 17th win of the season and 250th of his NHL career. I didnt have any doubts about the resiliency of our hockey team and the way we would respond.Upon getting yanked for giving up four goals on 18 shots Friday, Price stared down his bench before going down the tunnel. Price explained he was just ticked off and that everything was good between him and coach Michel Therrien.I think were all professionals and were able to realize that hockeys emotional and sometimes youre not going to see eye-to-eye on things, Price said. But at the end of the day you show up to work the next day and get the job done.Price got the job done with big stops on T.J. Oshie, Marcus Johansson and former teammate Lars Eller. His teammates got the job done as Artturi Lehkonen and Jeff Petry scored and the Canadiens blocked 21 shots and contained Alex Ovechkin and the Capitals high-powered offense.Defenseman Shea Weber, who left late in the second period when he took a shot from Washingtons Dmitry Orlov off the right leg, wasnt surprised that Price or anyone else rebounded as strongly as they did.We werent good enough for him last night and we did a lot better job in protecting him and clearing everything out of the way for him tonight, said Weber, who pronounced himself feeling great after the game. Were a tight group in here and everyone wants to be good for each other and theres a responsibility iin here and hes one of our teammates and weve got to be a lot better for him.dddddddddddd.The Capitals couldnt say the same about their play in front of 2015-2016 Vezina winner Braden Holtby, who made 23 saves on 25 shots. Nicklas Backstrom scored a 5-on-3 power play goal for Washington, which lost for the first time since Dec. 3 and in regulation for the first time since Dec. 1.Eller, who was traded from the Canadiens to the Capitals in June, said it was too easy a night for Price.To beat any goalie, you have to get shots, said Eller, referring to a shot drought of 15:22 that lasted from the second period into the third. We made it hard for ourselves.Capitals coach Barry Trotz said before the game that he expected Price to come back and make a statement, adding that If theres one area that I know theyre going to be good tonight, its going be in net. He wasnt wrong about the goaltender he got to know well at the World Cup of Hockey in September.They were defending pretty well and they got one of the best goaltenders in the National Hockey League in Price, Trotz said afterward. Hes been outstanding. We didnt make it hard enough, I thought, on Carey. ... I thought they had a little more bite in their game than we did.Game notesThe Capitals recalled F Zach Sanford from the American Hockey League on Saturday morning as he skated in his first NHL game since Nov. 26. ... Backstroms goal gave him six points in his past six games and 18 in his past 16. ... Canadiens D Nathan Beaulieu was given a 10-minute misconduct for abuse of officials after tapping his stick on the ice and saying something to a referee when coming out of the penalty box following Backstroms goal.UP NEXTCanadiens: Host Anaheim on Tuesday night.Capitals: Off until visiting Philadelphia on Wednesday night.---Follow Hockey Writer Stephen Whyno on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/SWhyno . ' ' '